Futures on Hillary's Future from Intrade

This page gives you real-time information on the probability that Hillary Clinton (and other leading Democratic hopefuls) will get the 2008 Democratic nomination. The information is courtesy of the dominant real money trading prediction market platform www.intrade.com

A picture paints a 1,000 words!

Below is a chart of Hillary's current odds and how they have changed since January 2005. (Chart updated once a day.)

The continually updated probabilities of Hillary and some of the other 2008 Democratic contenders are as follows...

FAQ's relating to Futures on Hillary Trading:

What is Futures on Hillary Trading?

Trading is defined as buying and/or selling of a contract on Hillary. People enter into trades in the hope of making a profit. In simple terms a trader will make a profit if he/she sells a contract at a higher price from where he/she bought it. "Buy Low, Sell High."

What is a Contract?

A contract may be considered similar to a share. A contract is an exchange-standardized agreement between the parties to the trade based on the outcome of a specified event.

How does pricing work on the Exchange?

Zero to One Hundred ( 0-100 ) pricing is used for Hillary contracts. A price of 0 = a worthless contract. A price of 100 = $10 in value. You my buy or sell as many contracts as you like subject to having funds in your account. Prices are quoted 0-100, which is in effect a percentile representation of the likelihood of a specific outcome or the probability of something actually happening.

Example

The Exchange listed a 0-100 contract for Hillary to be elected as the Democratic nominee for the '08 election.

Assume the BID price is 43 is where members are willing to BUY the likelihood of Hillary winning.

Assume the ASK (offer) price of 46 is where members are willing to SELL the likelihood of Hillary winning.

If your opinion is that Hillary will win, you would buy a contract as cheap as possible, 46 in our example.

For each 1 share or contract you buy you are risking $4.60 to make $5.40 as the maximum value is $10 per contract.

Alternatively if you thought Hillary would NOT win, you would SELL the contract at the best available price of 4.3

Here you are risking $5.7 ($10 less $4.3) to make $4.3 for each 1 contract you sell.

The amount you risk on a trade, or the money terms of a trade is based on the price of the contract and the number of contracts traded.

Where can I play?

www.intrade.com